Recent Posts
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Why India's unconventional foreign exchange policies won't work
Understanding India's unconventional monetary policy through T-accounts
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Oil prices, not safe havens, are driving the dollar's rally
The dollar's surge has more to do with the price of oil than the flight to safety
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Why making it easier to short a currency can weaken it
To slow the RMB's appreciation, the PBoC is making it easier to short the currency. Looking at the role of dealers hedging inventory risk shows how this rule change may work.
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Private credit took the loans, stablecoins threaten the funding
Banks are already facing competition for loans. Yield-bearing stablecoins will make funding these loans more expensive.
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Does the Fed manipulate rates in election years?
Using implied forward rates to back out expected interest rates in election years shows the bond market does not expect Fed manipulation.
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External Validity
Understanding when model retraining won't work
- Week 14 NFL Predictions, Daggy vs Kalshi
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Losing money at video poker, with data science!
Comparing A/B testing and bandit algorithms to find the best slot machine.
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Mortgage rates under various economic scenarios
Using Daggy to analyze how economic scenarios will impact mortgage rates
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Geopolitical Shocks and Stocks
Why geopolitical shocks impact the stock market much less than we think